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  • 时间: 2018 - 08 - 01
    source: SLHFINANCE
    【Fundamental analysis】  Global investors will usher in a key trading day. The Fed will announce monetary policy resolutions within the day. Although it is widely expected that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, the post-meeting statement will be highly concerned. If the statement is hawkish, it will be more for the year. The second rate hike paves the way, which may lead to a further rise in the dollar, and the price of gold may endure the pressure of continued decline.  At 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce interest rate resolutions and policy statements. According to Federal Fund Futures and Bloomberg survey of 56 economists, the Fed is not expected to raise interest rates this week.  Analysts pointed out that the FOMC statement will be the focus of investors' attention, and investors will look for important clues on subsequent interest rate hikes.  MarketWatch, the world's top financial media, wrote on Saturday that the Fed will say in a statement after the meeting this week that the economy is growing strongly and the inflation rate is moving towards its 2% target, and it is clear that more interest rate hikes are coming.  Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said: "What they need to do is point to current economic growth and inflation data, which will make the next rate hike in September possible."  The Fed will not release the latest economic forecast, and Federal Reserve Powell (Jerome Powell) will not hold a press conference.  Since there is no press conference, analysts are quite certain that the Fed will not raise interest rates at this week's meeting. Although the Fed has always insisted that it can raise interest rates at non-press conference meetings, the Fed has never done so.  The Fed expects to raise interest rates twice this year. It is expected to take interest rate hikes at the September and December meetings of the press conference. The FOMC raised interest rates by 25 basis points in March and June, respectively, so that interest rates are currently in the 1.75%-2% range.  [Technical graphics analysis]  1. EURUSD:H4  EUR/USD (EURUSD): Europe and the US closed yesterday's negative line. At present, the resistance position above the US and Europe is 1.1750, and the support below the short-term 1.1650 strong support 1.1620 operation is recommended to be low in the range. A stable trader can trade after the price breaks through the range.  2:XAUUSD:H4  Gold (XAUUSD): Gold closed the spindle line yesterday. Currently looking at the support below the 1214 line. The upper resistance is short-term 1230. It is recommended to do more bargain-hunting. If the price breaks above the upper resistance position, you can enter the market to do more.  3:XTIUSD:H4  Crude oil (XTIUSD): Oil price closed yesterday's big Yinxian. At present, the resistance position above the oil is 68.9, the lower support is 67.3, and the support is 65.9. The operation suggests that the short-line support can be used to make more oil, while the upper resistance is short. Loss 10 points.  【Importing important economic indicators in the day】  20:15 US ADP employment in July (10,000 people)  22:30 EIA crude oil inventories (10,000 barrels) from the US to July 27  Please reasonably plan the risk tolerance and set the stop loss according to your account. This recommendation is for reference only.  Investment is risky and requires caution when entering the market.
  • 时间: 2018 - 07 - 31
    source: SLHFINANCE
    【Fundamental analysis】This week, three central banks will announce interest rate resolutions. The Bank of Japan will first announce the results of the resolution on Tuesday. It was rumored that the Bank of Japan may adjust the ultra-loose policy on Tuesday. If this is the case, the market will undoubtedly have huge fluctuations. Analysts pointed out that if the Japanese bank's resolution is "smooth", this does not mean that there is no other point of view in the day. In fact, the Fed's most important indicator, the PCE inflation indicator, will be released on Tuesday evening in Beijing time, and its performance will be against the US dollar. Gold plays an important role, and the market may once again set off a huge wave.The two-day policy meeting of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will end on July 31. There are some market participants who speculate that the Bank of Japan will adjust the current loose monetary policy at this week's policy meeting.According to Bloomberg's previous report, Bank of Japan officials are reportedly looking for ways to mitigate the negative impact on the market and the bank's profitability while ensuring the sustainability of the stimulus plan.Speculations about what action the Bank of Japan may take include the possibility of adjusting its yield curve control and the ETF purchase plan.If there is any change in policy, it will be the first time since its introduction of the theoretical curve control measures aimed at reducing borrowing costs in 2016.At 20:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, the United States will announce June personal income and expenditure and PCE index. As the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the performance of the PCE price index will be highly concerned by investors.According to foreign media surveys, the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index is expected to rise by 2.3% in June, and the previous value is up by 2.3%. The core PCE price index is expected to increase by 2.0% annually, up from 2.0% last month.Analysts pointed out that if the data performance exceeded expectations, it will increase the Fed's expectation of more interest rate hikes during the year, which is expected to push the dollar back further and cause the price of gold to continue to decline.The Fed expects to raise interest rates twice this year. It is expected to take interest rate hikes at the September and December meetings of the press conference. The FOMC raised interest rates by 25 basis points in March and June, respectively, so that interest rates are currently in the 1.75%-2% range.【Technical graphics analysis】1:EURUSD:H4EUR/USD (EURUSD): Europe and the US closed yesterday on the daily line. At present, in the triangle arrangement of Europe and the United States, we believe that if Europe and the United States break through the triangle, it will usher in a wave of unilateral market. Therefore, it is recommended to follow the trend after breaking through the triangle in Europe and America. The current upper resistance position is 1.1750, and the lower support is 1.1616. The aggressive investors are low in the triangle before the breakout, and the stop loss triangle, after the breakthrough, follow the trend.2:XAUUSD:H4Gold (XAUUSD): Gold is currently located in the 4-hour triangle. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the triangle finishing interval is broken. If it breaks, it is recommended to follow up. Outside the stop loss triangle. Before the price breaks, it is recommended to wait and see.3:XTIUSD:H4Crude oil (XTIUSD): In the current rising channel of oil prices, it is recommended that there be a lot of high altitude in the channel. The operation can be short-selling oil at 70.7. At the same time, the oil can be burned at 67.8, and the last trading day at the end of today is stable. Customers can wait and see.【Importing important economic indicators in the day】15:55 Germany's unemployed in July's season (10,000 people)17:00 Eurozone June unemployment ratePlease reasonably plan the risk tolerance and set the stop loss according to your account. This recommendation is for reference only.Investment is risky and requires caution when entering the market.
  • 时间: 2018 - 07 - 30
    source: SLHFINANCE
    【Fundamental analysis】This week, the financial market ushered in a veritable "super week", the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will announce interest rate resolutions. In addition, investors will usher in many important economic indicators, of which non-agricultural reports are the top priority. Analysts said that so many risk events gathered this week will inevitably cause volatility in the market, and investors need to "fasten their seat belts."The two-day policy meeting of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will end on July 31. There are some market participants who speculate that the Bank of Japan will adjust the current loose monetary policy at this week's policy meeting.According to Bloomberg's previous report, Bank of Japan officials are reportedly looking for ways to mitigate the negative impact on the market and the bank's profitability while ensuring the sustainability of the stimulus plan.If there is any change in policy, it will be the first time since its introduction of the theoretical curve control measures aimed at reducing borrowing costs in 2016.At 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce interest rate resolutions and policy statements.MarketWatch, the world's top financial media, wrote on Saturday that the Fed will say in a statement after the meeting this week that the economy is growing strongly and the inflation rate is moving towards its 2% target, and it is clear that more interest rate hikes are coming. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said: "What they need to do is point to current economic growth and inflation data, which will make the next rate hike in September possible."The Fed will not release the latest economic forecast, and Federal Reserve Powell (Jerome Powell) will not hold a press conference. Since there is no press conference, analysts are quite certain that the Fed will not raise interest rates at this week's meeting. Although the Fed has always insisted that it can raise interest rates at non-press conference meetings, the Fed has never done so.The Bank of England will hold a policy meeting on Thursday (August 2). It is widely expected that the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy and raise the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%.This will be the second rate hike since November last year, and market participants will seek clues to further interest rate hikes.It is worth noting that the central bank will also announce the latest economic growth and inflation expectations in the quarterly inflation report.As early as May, investors almost completely priced in May to raise interest rates until the poor economic data in the UK made Carney change his mind. Now that the UK economy has clearly improved, the market is waiting for the credibility of the Bank of England to be tested again.【Technical graphics analysis】1:EURUSD:H4EUR/USD (EURUSD): Europe and the US closed last week on the weekly line. At present, there is no directional breakthrough in the 4-hour consolidation trend in Europe and America. The consolidation range is 1.175 to 1.157. The operation is recommended to be low in the range and 10 points outside the stop range. Before Europe and the United States did not go out of the 4 hours consolidation range, we recommend short-term trading in light warehouses.2:XAUUSD:H4Gold (XAUUSD): Gold is currently in the 4 hour interval. Currently, it is not yet broken through the consolidation range. The operation suggestion is that the range can be low and the price is 2 US dollars. If the price breaks through the range, the aggressive investors can follow the trend. Progress. Before the gold did not effectively fall below 1210, it is recommended that the short position be the short-term.3:XTIUSD:H4Crude oil (XTIUSD): The oil price currently breaks through the three practice zones. It is recommended that the rallies be short-selling. The upper resistance position is 69.50. The operation can be short-selling at the upper resistance position. At the same time, if the price falls below 67.9, the price will continue. Falling. Aggressive investors can enter the market when the price falls below 67.9. The stop loss is uniformly placed 10 points above the upper resistance position.【Importing important economic indicators in the day】noPlease reasonably plan the risk tolerance and set the stop loss according to your account. This recommendation is for reference only.Investment is risky and requires caution when entering the market.
  • 时间: 2018 - 07 - 27
    source: SLHFINANCE
    【Fundamental analysis】On Friday evening (July 27), Beijing time, the financial market will usher in the most important economic data of this week - the US second quarter GDP data. Overnight, influenced by ECB President Draghi's dovish, the euro/dollar was frustrated and the US dollar index was significantly higher. If the GDP data is strong tonight, the dollar is expected to strengthen further, which will not be good for gold. It is worth noting that US President Trump commented on GDP data tonight, GDP data will be "very good."The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, but ECB President Draghi’s wording for interest rate hikes is a bit of a pigeon, and the euro/dollar is short-lived on a “roller coaster”.Draghi said that the economic growth in the euro zone is stable and extensive. Global demand growth will boost the export of the euro zone. The risks facing the growth prospects are still roughly balanced. It is expected that the economy will grow strongly in the second half of the year.Draghi also said that the uncertainty surrounding inflation is fading and it is expected that inflation will remain at current levels for the rest of the year. Maintain key interest rates until at least the end of the summer of 2019, without adjusting interest rate guidance.Overall, Draghi is more hawkish in terms of growth/inflation, but is not as strong as the rate hike is expected. The euro/dollar initially rose from 1.1710 to 1.1730, but then fell to around 1.1650.It is expected that the US economy will rebound in the second quarter after the economic slowdown in the first quarter. According to a report earlier this week by Bloomberg, the US economy may grow at a rate of 4% in the second quarter, the highest since 2014.The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg shows that the US second-quarter GDP initial season is expected to grow at 4.2%, with the highest forecast reaching 5.4%.US President Trump said on Thursday that US GDP data will be "very good." GDP may not reach 5.3%, but it will be great.Trump said: "Someone predicts a GDP of 5.3% in the second quarter today; I don't think this will happen. If it is higher than 4%, we are very happy; if it is 3.8% or 3.9%, it is also very good. ."Trump also claims that recent economic data is a bit "unbelievable."According to foreign media, strictly speaking, Trump leaked US GDP data, and he said the data would be "very good", indicating that the data is consistent with expectations or even higher than expected.If this result occurs, it will increase the chances of the Fed's accelerated rate hike and support the dollar. The spread between the United States and other major economies is the main driver of the dollar this year.【Technical graphics analysis】1:EURUSD:H4EUR/USD (EURUSD): Europe and the US closed yesterday's daily line. Currently, Europe and the United States are in a four-hour and daily-level consolidation. The operation is recommended to be treated according to the high-altitude and low-level thinking. The upper consolidation range is 1.179, and the lower interval is 1.157. Before the price does not break through the interval, it is recommended that the range is low in the high range and 10 points outside the stop loss range.2:XAUUSD:H4Gold (XAUUSD): Gold closed yesterday's daily line. Currently, the price is in the range of 1235 to 1218. The operation is recommended to be low in the range and 2 dollars outside the stop range. It is recommended to have a high altitude before the price does not break through the range. If the price breaks through the range, you can follow up with the trend.3:XTIUSD:H4Crude oil (XTIUSD): In the current triangle consolidation of oil prices, from the trend point of view, the current price is defined as the callback for the previous decline, the operation is recommended to be low in the range, while observing whether the price breaks through the range, if the price breaks, follow the trend 10 points outside the stop loss range.【Importing important economic indicators in the day】22:00 US July University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Final ValuePlease reasonably plan the risk tolerance and set the stop loss according to your account. This recommendation is for reference only.Investment is risky and requires caution when entering the market.
  • 时间: 2018 - 07 - 26
    source: SLHFINANCE
    【Fundamental analysis】On Wednesday (July 25), there was a lot of attention in the European and American trade negotiations, and the two sides reached an agreement to avoid trade wars. The news caused the euro/dollar to rise sharply in the short-term, the dollar index fell quickly, and the gold price strengthened and returned to above $1,230/oz. On Thursday, the financial market will focus on the ECB's resolution, and central bank governor Draghi will hold a press conference, which may trigger dramatic market volatility.According to the Wall Street Journal, the EU agreed to import more US soybeans, and the EU also agreed to import more US LNG. In addition, the EU also agreed to reduce industrial tariffs and agreed that medical products will comply with regulatory standards.After the news came, the euro/dollar took the short-term high of 30 points and refreshed to 1.1735. Other non-US currencies also collectively rose.Trump said in a joint statement between the White House and Juncker on Wednesday: "Today is a big day, very big." Trump said that the two leaders also agreed to commit to a "zero" tariff on industrial products.Trump said the two sides agreed to expand imports of US liquefied natural gas and soybeans in Europe, and both sides lowered tariffs on industrial products.Juncker claimed that during the negotiations, the United States and the European Union will "suspend other tariffs."Trade relations between the United States and the European Union have been in tension in recent months. In June this year, the US president threatened to impose tariffs on imported cars from the European Union.Last week, EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom said that if the United States taxed these taxes, it would be "very unfortunate" and added that the EU has prepared its own list of countermeasures.Affected by the agreement reached in Europe and the United States, the US stock market closed sharply higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 172.16 points to close at 25,414.10 points, and fell more than 100 points in intraday trading.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chairman Lagarde said in a statement, "I am pleased to learn that the United States and the European Union have reached an agreement today to work together to reduce trade barriers and work with other partners to strengthen the WTO."US Commerce Secretary Ross said in a Fox News interview that trade in all agricultural products will be discussed in the US-Europe negotiations. Ross said: "Not just soybeans, all agricultural products have to be discussed."At 19:45 Beijing time on Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision; at 20:30 Beijing time, European Central Bank President Draghi will hold a press conference.Judging from the general expectations of the current market, the ECB will not take any action in this resolution. Therefore, Draghi's speech will become the focus of the market.At the June meeting, the European Central Bank announced all the details of the end of the asset purchase decision, and when it was expected to raise interest rates for the first time, which surprised many people. Traders will be looking for more clues about the bank's vague schedule of interest rate hikes on Thursday.Although the European Central Bank is preparing to withdraw from the bond purchase program, the bleak prospects of the company will almost certainly keep the ECB cautious.After the ECB’s landmark decision to end the four-year QE last month, investors hope that the ECB will give more clarity on the forward-looking guidance of keeping interest rates unchanged for at least the summer of 2019. Some reports indicate that members of the management committee have different interpretations.Since then, unexpected dovish interest rate forecasts have been putting pressure on the euro. But the euro may benefit from any hint that the central bank will raise interest rates before the end of 2019.Analysts believe that at the July meeting, the European Central Bank is not expected to change its policy, and President Draghi is expected to reiterate his recent message.【Technical graphics analysis】1:EURUSD:D1EUR/USD (EURUSD): Europe and the US closed yesterday on the daily line. At present, the price below supports the short-term 1.1650. Strong support 1.1570, the operation is recommended to do more bargain-hunting, the radical investors to do more than 1.1650 to do more Europe and the United States, the steady trader with 1.1570 as the support to do more Europe and the United States, if Europe and America Breaking through 1.1755, it will continue to rise.2:XAUUSD:D1Gold (XAUUSD): Gold closed yesterday on the daily line. At present, the support position below is at 1225, and the strong support is at 1217. We suggest that we can do more on the bargain. The aggressive investors can do more gold at 1225, and the steady investors can do more than 1217. Gold, short-term look can be short-selling gold at 1235, short-term recommendation is short-term and set stop loss. If the price line breaks through 1235, then we think gold will go to the 1250 line.3:XTIUSD:D1Crude oil (XTIUSD): Crude oil closed yesterday's daily line on the daily line. Currently, the oil price below the support is 70.7 above the short-term resistance at 77.3. If the price breaks above 70.7, it will continue to rise. In operation, it is recommended to do more on dips. You can make more oil at 67.3, and if the price breaks above 70, you can follow more. At the same time, aggressive investors can short-sell oil at 69.30, short-term short-term and short-term departure.【Importing important economic indicators in the day】20:30 Number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States until July 21 (10,000)22:30 EIA natural gas inventory (100 million cubic feet) from the US to July 20Please reasonably plan the risk tolerance and set the stop loss according to your account. This recommendation is for reference only.Investment is risky and requires caution when entering the market.
  • 时间: 2018 - 05 - 17
    source: SLHFINANCE
    The rise in crude oil prices has brought problems to Japan, which is dependent on energy imports. In light of the rising risk in the Middle East after the United States withdrew from Iran’s nuclear agreement and the continued reduction of production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), oil prices will remain high.Global stock market renewed gains may be a more powerful factor in pushing the yen lower. Japanese interest rates are at a very low level, making the yen a popular financing currency in carry trades. When the stock market rises, carry trades usually prevail. The resumption of the global stock market will bring new selling pressure to the yen.Currently, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Alum Global Market Index have broken through a series of technical resistance levels, both of which are only slightly higher, and can surpass the top of the daily-balanced cloud area. Similar transcendence served as a springboard for the 2016 stock market rally.If the stock market appears bullish technical breakthroughs, investors will generally increase their risk appetite, which may include Japanese investors sitting on a large number of financial assets. They have already revealed their interest in higher-risk investments. They bought a record-sized Spanish bond in March and generally reduced their hedge against bond purchases.Japanese investors usually exacerbate the poor performance of the yen in April and May when they held large amounts of funds for the new fiscal year. This is reflected in the seasonal charts for the USD/JPY rally beginning in April and May of 2015, 2016 and 2017.From the position point of view, there is no potential factor that may drag the USD/JPY. Judging by the standards of the past two years, the long USD/JPY positions are currently relatively small, while the size of long positions was usually much larger when the background of other markets was similar to the current one.At the same time, the USDJPY just broke above the 200-day moving average, suggesting that it may lead investors to actively establish long positions.After reaching the 38.2% fall in the range of 118.66-104.56 yen in 2016-2018, it returned to the 109.95 level and then rose above the 200-day moving average. Since then, the USD/JPY may continue to rise to 115.33, which is 76.4% of the above decline. Bit. The 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the 2016-18 decline are 111.61 and 113.27, respectively, which are medium-term targets.Similarly, the median forecast by analysts polled by Reuters this month shows that the US dollar against the Japanese yen is approaching 108-109 yen for the next 12 months, which is about 5 yen lower than the level expected when the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose strongly in January. .From the survey and the CFTC data, traders have insufficient stock market and oil market forecasts for the upswing that will occur, which may increase the USD/JPY gains. Interest rates also support USD/JPY, and the 10-year spread between the U.S. and Japan’s 10-year Treasury bonds is at its highest level in over 10 years. However, as interest rates have failed to provide support for USD/JPY for the past year or so, many traders may have overlooked the effects of yield. This view is more costly, because assuming the exchange rate remains intact, USD/JPY is long Within three months, nearly 0.75% of the proceeds will be earned because of spreads. With the Fed planning to raise interest rates by 50 basis points this year, the long return will be even more.And if the sell-off of the yen against emerging market high-yield currencies, such as the Russian ruble or Mexican peso, may have nearly 1.5% of the proceeds. Taking into account the oil-producing countries of Russia and Mexico, the currencies of the two countries are expected to be supported by high oil prices.Buying a Canadian dollar/yen or a Norwegian krone/yen will yield the same gains as a dollar operation, but it will not encounter any risk that some people think there will be in the United States or especially in emerging markets. The expectation that the Norwegian central bank will tighten its policies after the summer is expected to boost transaction returns. In Canada, the market has expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points before the end of 2018.Operationally, we continue to hold the view of the United States and Japan, and the USDJPY price line did not close again before the 110 line. We all recommend taking more positions in the US and Japan.
  • 时间: 2018 - 04 - 25
    source: SLHFINANCE
    FundamentalsWith the recession in the yields of US Treasury bonds and the U.S. president’s desire to restart negotiations on Iran’s nuclear agreement, the market’s risk aversion has been heating up. The US dollar index ended the rise for five consecutive trading days, and fell slightly from the two-month high, boosting the price of gold to rise.However, at a news conference with French President Malone on Tuesday, Trump said that at least the United States and France can reach an agreement soon. Macron has always hoped to retain Iran’s nuclear agreement.This makes the gold bullish counter-strike strength still weak. Earlier, due to rising US Treasury yields and diminished geopolitical concerns, weakened risk aversion and reduced investor demand for gold, causing the price of gold to plummet to the top of the $1,320 mark.The 10-year US Treasury yield has hit 3% for the first time since 2014, but the rise has encountered resistance, forcing benchmark bond yields to fall below 3%, dragging the dollar lower. However, as investors expect the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year, the gold market sentiment is still somewhat depressed.Both the core CPI and the New York Fed’s potential inflation indicators show that US inflation will rise. Some indicators suggest that inflation may reach 3%, but inflation may not reach the 3% level.US Treasury yields are on the upward path, but it is not clear whether the US Treasury yield curve will be inverted. Due to the high cost of hedging, foreign investors will not plan to purchase US Treasury bonds. One of the reasons for the increase in the yield of Treasury bonds is that the Fed tightens its easing policy.The new “debt king” Gundlach pointed out earlier that gold has broken the downward trend line and it is just as exciting as “what is happening”.Gold is very sensitive to US Treasury yields and the weaker US dollar. A weaker U.S. dollar will allow foreign currency investors to buy gold cheaply while the U.S. Treasury yield is falling, thus limiting the opportunity cost of holding non-revenue assets such as gold.Geopolitical Confidence Sharpens Risk AppetitePresident Trump of the United States stated that during the process of reaching a trade agreement with China, "very good chances are very likely to emerge." Trump also confirmed that U.S. Finance Minister Nuchin will travel to China to discuss a trade agreement.On the other hand, the geopolitical uncertainties of the peninsula have been greatly reduced. South Korea stopped broadcasting propaganda on North Korea at the border on Monday to welcome the first summit of the DPRK and South Korea in 10 years.North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Wen will meet at the border truce village at Panmunjoe on Friday. The preparations for the summit have entered the final stage.In addition, South Korea’s Blue House said on Tuesday that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that if North Korea has planned an upcoming summit with South Korea and the United States to succeed, it may also mean that North Korea and Japan are expected to normalize relations.In terms of economic data, the first quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) figures that the United States will publish this Friday may be the key to determining whether the U.S. dollar can continue to grow, thus further affecting the trend of gold. In the long run, the dollar is still the dominant force in the price of gold.Technical aspectsLast week, the weekly price of gold closed at the weekly line, this week after the gold opened, it fell and fell below the 1330 first-line support. Currently, if gold falls below its key support, it will continue to fall. The current gold price range is 1365 to 1305, and we believe gold may move towards 1305. The frontline seeks support. Before gold closed at 1330, we did not recommend that we do more bullish trading. At the end of last week, we mainly sold short gold in rallies. Investors could focus on the short-term support of the 1320 line below gold, suggesting that short selling above 1320 could be shorted by rallies. Gold to 1305.The US dollar rose out of the range shock or continued to rise as the U.S. economic indicators strengthened. At the same time, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar also broke through the 6.325 line and opened the road to devaluation. Therefore, it is recommended that investors can properly exchange foreign exchange to avoid assets shrinking caused by the devaluation of the renminbi. We do not think that the trend of the Vietnamese dollar against the US dollar will depreciate to the 6.50 line in the medium term. In operation, investors can buy the yuan against the US dollar and focus on the 6.325 first-line breakthrough. Radical investors can do more in the front line of 6.325 against the US dollar, and stable investors can enter the market after the price break.The U.S.-South Korea summit will soon take place. At the same time, on Thursday, the European Central Bank’s interest rate resolution recommended that investors pay close attention to market news changes and make reasonable positions.
  • 时间: 2018 - 04 - 17
    source: SLHFINANCE
    As tensions in Syria have eased and Trump has not imposed more sanctions on Russia, market risk aversion has declined.Spot gold rose only slightly on Monday, still blocked at the $1350 mark, but the dollar hit a new low for more than three weeks to support the gold price; oil prices also fell from a three-year high due to a decline in geopolitical risk.In addition, the media said that Trump plans to nominate Richard Clarida, an economist of Pacific Investment Management, as the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, and succeeds Fisher as the “Follower of the Fed”.International spot gold Monday (April 16) Asian market opened at 1344.60 US dollars / ounce in the morning, the lowest test 1339.80 US dollars / ounce, the highest rose to 1350.52 US dollars / ounce, and finally closed at 1345.54 US dollars / ounce, up 0.34 US dollars, an increase of 0.02 %. Today's gold day line quickly fell after the opening of the European market. Currently, the gold and long-short gold market is the 1330 line. If the price effectively falls below 1330, then we will think that gold will continue to seek support. Its space below 1310.Some analysts said that the current market is still concerned about Sino-US trade warfare and North American free trade negotiations and other issues, but the news is more moderate, so the market risk sentiment has returned, which to some extent inhibited the sharp rise in gold, gold material Will fall into wide-range consolidation.From a technical point of view, currently gold still maintains its technical advantages. The price of gold is running above the key support level at 1,335.40 US dollars per ounce, short-term resistance at 1350 and 1360, followed by the previous high at 1365.97 US dollars per ounce. Downside support is at the 1340, 1330, and 1320 integer levels.Media Says Trump Suspended More Sanctions Against RussiaThe "Washington Post" broke the news that Trump opted not to impose more sanctions on Russia for the time being, unless the Russian side has further provocations and is not satisfied with the advance notice statement of US Ambassador to the United Nations on Sunday.After the announcement, the Russian stocks, related ETFs and rubles traded in the United States rebounded and rose.In addition, Trump also criticized China and Russia for playing a "currency devaluation game," saying that the United States does not accept it.Middle East Conflict Concerns eased Oil prices fell from a three-year highAs investors' concerns about the conflict in the Middle East have eased, crude oil has fallen from a three-year high. WTI May crude oil futures fell 1.74% on Monday, Brent crude oil futures closed down 1.60% in June.Technical analysis shows that the current oil price oscillates between 65.6 and 67.6. However, from a 4-hour period, crude oil is located below the range. We recommend that oil be bought as appropriate, with a stop loss at 65.60. At present, crude oil has not yet formed an effective downward trend, and the operation is still dominated by more than one purchase. However, we should also be alert to the rapid decline in the price of crude oil futures delivered in April due to the long profit taking. It is recommended that investors use wet storage to operate crude oil in the near future.The US dollar index recently consolidated with the current index between 90.6 and 80.9. From the perspective of the daily trend of the US dollar index, it is not ruled out that the United States Accuracy could once again test the 90 line. Therefore, we suggest that we can short the non-US currency by rallies.The recent market trend is affected by the Sino-US trade war and the situation in the Middle East. News from either side will lead to increased market volatility and a short-term disorder. Investors can adopt short-term strategies to avoid relatively large time periods.
  • 时间: 2018 - 04 - 04
    source: SLHFINANCE
    FundamentalsAlthough the US stocks and the dollar rebounded, spot gold fell by over 10 US dollars overnight, but due to the escalation of the trade war between China and the United States, market fears have become more serious, and gold is still supported, stabilizing above the $1330 level.After the sharp rebound of US stocks overnight, the two cities of China opened higher today. As of the close of the morning, the Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.80% higher, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.62%, but the GEM Index fell 0.07%.The trade war between China and the US has been the focus of the market for a long time. The United States has issued a list of tariffs on Chinese products, covering aerospace, information and communications technology, robotics, and machinery. It includes approximately 1300 independent tariffs, with a total size of approximately US$50 billion.In response, China has responded strongly. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and the Chinese Embassy in the United States all responded by saying that China will respond to US products with equal measures and equivalent measures of equal scale.Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lu Yong’s answer to the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office’s announcement of the list of China’s 301 survey products on taxation products expressed:The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China has clearly stated China's solemn position. I must stress once again that the United States disregards China’s solemn representations and has no basis on facts. Proposing taxation proposals is a typical unilateralist and trade protectionist approach. China strongly condemns and firmly opposes it. The US approach has seriously violated the basic principles and spirit of the WTO, and China will immediately resort to the US wrongdoing to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism.Analysts pointed out that as China's trade tensions rise further, worries about trade wars are also increasing, which will be a major positive for gold and other safe-haven assets.However, JP Morgan believes that tariffs will not help reduce the US trade deficit with China. The trade war is unlikely to materialize.Kerry Craig, a global market strategist at Melbourne-based Chase Capital Management in Melbourne, said that products produced in the United States are not sufficient to meet consumer demand. "Their tariffs on products from other countries will not help change this situation." The U.S. tariff list is "not surprising," because it tries to do what it can to start with pain without affecting U.S. consumers; it is expected that tensions may continue 6-8 before the list is formally finalized. Weekly time; however, although trade salivation will intensify, the trade war is unlikely to be realized.In addition, Federal Reserve Board member Brainard said on Tuesday that the valuation of US stocks undergoing adjustment is still relatively high, while the level of government bond yields is relatively low, and expectations for high inflation may increase the term premium of government bonds, triggering a series of declines in asset prices. Brainard also warned of the risk of cryptocurrency, saying that the Fed is monitoring "extreme volatility brought about by some cryptocurrencies."Technical aspectsgoldThe gold price closed above 1330 yesterday. Although it broke below 1330 at one time, the price quickly recovered after entering 1330 and closed above 1330. We have noticed that after entering 2018, the gold price has continued to consolidate within a large range and range from 1365 to 1300. At present, there are no signs of gold breaking through the unilateral trend. However, we believe that the normal trend of gold will have an average of 2,500 US dollars each year. After entering April, it will be the opening time of major currencies and commodity trends. Whether gold rose above 1365 to a higher price or fell below 1300 to a lower price depends critically on the current market's risk appetite.Analyze from the technical level. We believe that the price of gold reached more than 1350 in this year's 3, but all fell quickly. Therefore, we judged that there was no key buying in gold above 1350. We believe that from the current monetary policy of the Fed’s gradual tightening and the fall in commodity prices affected by the trade war, gold has not broken through the rising market basis in terms of monetary policy or inflation. We suggest that investors can gradually lay out long-term gold short-term orders in 1365. If gold falls below 1300, we think that the future gold price will drop to 1150.crudeAffected by the establishment of China's crude oil futures, the oil price maintained its upward trend in the previous period, but it did not show an upward breakthrough after the price reached the previous high of 66.5. At the same time, the continuing decline in the stock market has provided fundamental support for the downside of oil prices. therefore. We believe oil prices will continue to adjust to the 58 line in the short-term. Therefore, investors can try to empty the single-band market with gradual distribution of oil up to the 66.5 line.The recent market focus has gradually shifted from the monetary policy level to the US-originated trade war against China. Market sentiment will also appear unstable due to various positional news. Investors are advised not to blindly chase high sell-offs, treat them cautiously, and deal with wet storage.
  • 时间: 2018 - 03 - 26
    source: SLHFINANCE
    Basics:The uncertainty surrounding the possible outbreak of a trade war between the United States and China worries the market. US Finance Minister Nuchin is very optimistic that the United States can reach an agreement with China to prevent the need for President Trump to impose tariffs in advance.The highly anticipated crude oil futures were formally traded on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange on March 26. As the first type of futures that are open to foreign investors, the birth of crude oil futures bears the good aspiration of China's financial market to move forward with international standards.Last week, U.S. President Trump signed a presidential memorandum to impose tariffs on Chinese imports of up to 60 billion U.S. dollars on the grounds that the move was "theft of U.S. intellectual property rights."As a response to U.S. tariffs, China plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports of 300 million U.S. dollars. China plans to levy a 15% tariff on steel pipes, fruits, wines and other products from the United States, and plans to impose a 25% tariff on pork and recycled aluminum.The United States and China are negotiating to improve the United States' access to the Chinese market. If the Sino-U.S. negotiations progress and avoid a trade war, the rebound of risk assets may cause concern.The increasingly tense relationship between the two countries hinders the appetite of investors. The foreign exchange market will focus on whether the United States and China will soften or strengthen their position in trade.Affected by OPEC's increased output reduction efforts and global demand is expected to increase further, oil prices once rose to 66.55, only a step away from the four-year high of 66.66. Saudi Energy Minister Fareh said on Friday that OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers need to continue to cooperate in reducing production until 2019.Since January 2017, OPEC and the non-OPEC oil-producing countries led by Russia have reduced production by 1.8 million barrels per day to offset the soaring US crude oil production.The US crude oil drilling activity is active. According to Baker Hughes data, the number of crude oil drilling increased by 4 to 804, which is the highest level since March 2015.At the same time, China's crude oil futures planned for 17 years have also been formally listed. This is China's first international futures variety, or it will change the international energy landscape.On Monday, crude oil futures officially traded on the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center, a subsidiary of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Crude oil futures is China's first internationalized futures variety. It will directly introduce overseas investors to participate in the exploration of the comprehensive international market operation and supervision experience of the futures market.The preparation of China's crude oil futures has lasted 17 years. It was learned from the previous energy that the highlights and innovations of the crude oil futures contract design scheme can be summarized as “international platform, net price transaction, bonded delivery, and renminbi pricing”.Technical side:EURUSDThe current price of the euro against the US dollar lies at 1.24. At present, the euro was seen closing last week at the Xiaoyang line, and the euro rose rapidly against the US dollar on Monday. We believe that the current price of the euro against the US dollar is in a wide-range volatility with a shock range of 1.25 to 1.22. The current market is affected by the decline of the US dollar index, and the euro is temporarily in a relatively inactive zone against the US dollar. From the US dollar index, if the US dollar index effectively stands firm to the 89 line, we believe that the probability of the euro falling against the US dollar will increase. From the current signs of easing in the Sino-US trade war, the U.S. dollar index is likely to be supported by the 89-line upside. Therefore, we recommend investors to short the EURUSD against the USD and stop loss at 1.25050. If the EURUSD can fall to 1.235 this week, then we suggest we can continue to enter the short EUR, if the EURUSD closes above 1.245. , then it will be the signal that the EURUSD continues to strengthen. It is possible to enter the market after the 1.245 to stabilize the long euro.GoldThe current price of gold is around 1347, and gold has risen rapidly after the Fed raised interest rates last week because we believe that the current resistance position above gold is 1355, and if the price of gold exceeds 1355 in the future, then we will determine that gold will continue to rise. But before gold broke through the 1355 line. We believe that the gold winning selection has a short-term upside correction. Under the gold support position 1330, we suggest investors can enter the market to buy gold in the 1330, while the aggressive investors can also short the 1335 to short the gold to the 1330 line.CrudeThe oil price is currently at the 56.70 line. The current price is located near the previous high of 66.60. We believe that this position is an excellent opportunity for light oil to stop light. Radical investors can enter the market with short oil, stop loss 66.70, and if the oil price breaks 66.70, it will rise to the 69 line. Before the price upslope 66.60, we think the price of oil will be adjusted back to 63. As a result, radical customers can sell oil at current prices, while stable customers can enter the market shortly after the oil price closes on the negative line. At the same time, they can enter the market after the oil price falls back to the 63 line.At the same time, investors’ attention has focused on the latest developments in the trade war. It is reported that China has responded to the Trump administration’s move to impose tariffs on goods worth at least US$50 billion. China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Friday that it will impose a $3 billion tariff on U.S. goods.US Finance Minister Nuchin is very optimistic that the United States can reach an agreement with China to prevent the need for President Trump to impose tariffs in advance.Nuchin said that China and the United States agree to reduce the U.S. trade deficit to some extent and try to explore whether an agreement can be reached to determine what kind of fair trade can open markets, reduce tariffs, and stop mandatory technology transfer.With regard to the new trends in the trade war between China and the United States, it will bring new opportunities for price fluctuations to the market. It is recommended that investors should take light positions to participate in market fluctuations.The above suggestions are for reference only.
  • 时间: 2018 - 06 - 12
    source: SLHFINANCE
    News News:At 9:15 GMT on June 12th in Beijing, the highly-specialized special meeting was held in Singapore as scheduled. In the past 70 years, the United States and the DPRK have lost each other’s confidence crisis. This historic meeting is seen as a sign of the end of the Cold War.Another news: U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ended their historic first summit in Singapore. Trump said that his meeting with Kim Jung-un was "really great." For decades, Pyongyang and Washington have remained hostile."A lot of progress has been made. It's really positive... It's better than anyone expected." After the meeting, Trump stood beside Kim Jong-un and said, "Superb. Really great."This landmark summit is the first step in the process that the United States, Japan, South Korea and China hope to bring about the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. As planned, Trump will hold a press conference at 4 pm local time to talk about the negotiations.When the two went through the Jiapile Hotel, where the summit was held, Kim Jong-un told Trump that “many people in the world would think that this is a ... fantasy story in a science fiction movie.” Trump added. Both will go to participate in a "signing" ceremony, but he did not give any details.After a 40-minute one-to-one meeting, Trump and Kim Jong-un led their respective delegations to a wider range of talks and then had a working lunch.The US delegation includes Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, National Security Advisor John Bolton, and White House Chief of Staff John Kelly. The North Koreans included Kim Jong-un’s confidant, Kim Young-jeong, who recently met with Trump at the White House.At the beginning of the summit, Kim Jong-un stated that "the future will face challenges, but we will work together with Trump (President)." He said: "We have overcome various suspicions about this summit. I believe this is conducive to peace."Shallow hill view:The DPRK nuclear issue and the series of international sanctions and conflicts triggered by it have once become one of the most important risk events in the financial market. However, with the ever-increasing interaction between the DPRK and South Korea and the DPRK and the United States since May, there may have been some changes. It came - but it eventually led to the special meeting of the special fund in Singapore. Although the impact of the short-term impact on international exchanges and commodities is flat, in the long term, if the interaction between the United States and the DPRK can be sustained, the impact it brings is not simply the elimination of a geopolitical risk point. It is for international politics. The long-term financial impact will surely appear...Of course, the evaluation of the “Special Gold Council” achieved the first handshake between the incumbent leaders of the DPRK and the United States since the end of World War II, and thus was considered to be a sign of the end of the Cold War. While such positioning is meaningful, it is more like a sign. Its impact on the global capital market is currently nothing more than to enhance the short-term risk appetite of the market, thus promoting changes in the market's short-term trend. However, this view is still too restrictive. Otherwise, North Korea, as a small country with a population of only 25 million in North-East Asia and whose economic size is even less worth mentioning, will promote several times on the issue of nuclear abandonment, including China, the United States, Russia and Japan. What are the six-nation talks in which important countries participateFrom the perspective of the geo-economic sector, the section of the global economy that is currently most dynamic and has potential for development is the Asia-Pacific region. The source of economic power in this region is precisely the Northeast Asia region. North Korea, as the “heritage” of the Cold War, is rightly in Northeast Asia. Middle ground. It is the hostile relations between the DPRK and the ROK and even the United States that have made this area always in an "accident-prone zone." North Korea’s long-term sanctions and international isolation have caused it to often use irrational measures to put pressure on South Korea. The long-standing presence of the US military in South Korea is also affecting China’s and Russia’s security risks. South Korea’s bilateral trade (for example, the deployment led by “Sade”); Japan, which is located across the strait, because of its allies relations with the United States, and with historical reasons, also intentionally or unintentionally joined the North Korea and even against China. Northeast Asia has always been difficult to form an effective economic linkage and the entire sector has been fragmented. Unexpected military spending and the loss of multilateral trade have long-term negative effects on the region.However, if the DPRK and the United States can directly contact and continue to behave in a positive manner, this style of painting may be another kind of scene. First, as a condition of North Korea abandoning its nuclear program, the sanctions against the DPRK will be reduced. As a result, the probability of occurrence of irrational conflicts in the Korean peninsula will be greatly reduced. Then, if the US can reduce or even eliminate the presence of garrison troops in South Korea, it will be used in Northeast China and Russia. The development of the Far East is also of great benefit. In addition, due to the DPRK-US dialogue, Japan, which has lost its grip on North Korea, will likely become antagonistic to cooperation. The construction of the “China, Japan and South Korea” free trade zone will be greatly advanced, and the process of economic integration in Northeast Asia will be greatly accelerated. This will be beneficial to the economic development in the Asia Pacific region and even the world. In the end, the military presence of the United States may be weakened, but the political dividends are indeed rich. It is possible that the President of the United States will receive a Nobel Peace Prize. Coupled with the strengthening of economic linkages in Northeast Asia, its economic and trade relations with the United States are closer, and the economic dividend of the United States is also obvious.Of course, the premise of all this is to maintain a continuous and positive interaction between the United States and the DPRK that begins with the “Special Fund”. If this is the case, the U.S. dollar’s position will have little effect, but the market will continue to improve its risk appetite and the economic trend of the Northeast Asian real economy. The continuous increase in strength will inevitably push commodity prices to continue to strengthen...
  • 时间: 2018 - 05 - 07
    source: SLHFINANCE
    News News:On the morning of May 6, the White House of the United States issued a statement on the progress of trade negotiations between China and the United States. It is worth noting that this statement has used exactly the same word in the press release of China as the description of the negotiation. The word is "candid." Specifically, this U.S. statement said: "The delegation and Chinese officials have conducted "candid" discussions on the issue of balancing China-U.S. bilateral economic and trade relations, intellectual property protection, and unfair technology transfer. The delegation emphasized that only fair trade will enable the rapid economic development of China, the United States, and the world." It is also worth noting that of the last two paragraphs of the U.S. statement, a total of four paragraphs, the phrase says "Tran The U.S. attaches great importance to this negotiation and believes that Sino-U.S. trade relations "need to change." Another paragraph says that "the delegation has already returned to the United States to report the content of the negotiations to Trump and seek his instructions for the next step." .Shallow hill view:In early May, a seven-member delegation from the U.S. delegation came to China to represent the highest level of trade negotiations. This is a fruitless negotiation, as it was from the initial setup. In the past, the Sino-U.S. negotiations were all bottom-up: the business community exchanged opinions with the grassroots government, and then public opinion was reflected in the high-level, and finally high-level government officials visited and signed agreements. Because the two parties have relatively accurate understanding of each other's needs, there are usually some definite results. This time, the Sino-U.S. talks are top-down and have a distinctive Trump style: high-profile visits and suspenseful demands. Both governments and companies are confused. Because no one can tell what Trump wants. This is exactly the same as the thinking of the U.S.-DPRK negotiations. Trump like Putin likes to create chaos and start a conversation with a request that the other party cannot accept. He thinks this will win him the upper hand and force him to make bigger concessions.Who can influence TrumpTrump is fickle, sometimes inconsistent in one sentence, but the only constant argument since he took office is opposition to trade liberalization. Scholars and the general public also have value disputes over trade liberalization. Because everyone has different jobs, positions, and strata, attitudes are quite different. However, Trump has had great preconceptions about global trade, especially between developed countries and low-cost exporting countries. Trump believes that the deficit with China must be reduced. Although experts have pointed out that this is almost impossible to achieve, the vast majority of the trade deficit between China and the United States is caused by differences in the trade structure between the two countries, rather than unfair trade. Trump asked China to reduce its trade surplus of 100 billion U.S. dollars by whatever means. This is also extremely ironic, because the United States has always emphasized fair trade and a market economy, but it has given China a plan-based economic power. The goal that the government can achieve.The trade delegation included the current US Ambassador to China with a mild attitude towards China, the slightly tough but still middle-of-the-century U.S. Treasury Secretary, and several Cold War thinking trade officials, including the White House trade adviser Navarro. However, if this delegation can truly represent Trump, it is also unfounded. At present, the thinking of Navarro is closest to Trump. Before the arrival of several officials, I am afraid that I know that the chance of obtaining groundbreaking achievements is very low. Because the Chinese economy already has a considerable ability to resist pressure, the threat to the United States will not easily concede. U.S. Finance Minister Munuchin said he was "cautiously optimistic." Trump often said on all occasions that he wanted "victory" and "a victory for all Americans." But how can a trade war have the victory of the entire people The battle of industrial workers in the rust economic zone has been won, and the seeds of soybeans and corn in the agricultural state will be unlucky. Taxes on electronic products imported from China will be unfavorable to U.S. suppliers in the industry chain, and they are usually the ones with the highest value-added industries (such as industrial design). So even if it wins a trade war, it can only be a victory for some people, or it is just Trump's show off on Twitter.Trump wants to seek benefits. The fundamental differences between China and the United States are concentrated in the national interest. The fundamental interests of the two countries are different, although they are mutually important economic and trade partners. In this negotiation, China said that both sides “achieved consensus on some issues”. However, it needs to be recognized that no matter where the consensus of both parties is, it cannot fundamentally change the economic and trade relations between the two sides. There are fundamental differences between China and the United States in geopolitics, social processes and civil rights. The current trade dispute reflects this difference from one angle only.The difference in the economic development stage between China and the United States is another inseparable gap. The United States is already a mature and developed economy, surpassing the stage of “using pollution for development” and “letting some people get rich first”. While China’s economy in terms of purchasing power parity is already the world’s largest, almost every industry is just taking off or catching up. China's population, resources, and environmental pressure coupled with huge regional differences make it possible to choose a different development model than the United States. What the United States most wishes to see is that China has changed its industrial policy, abandon the “Made in China 2025”, and no longer threatens US technology and industry, but this is an unrealistic expectation. Similar to the United States’ fear of Russia and Japan, the hostility to China has also come from the narrowing of the gap between the two sides.For China, this trade negotiation is a test of the route. As China’s reforms say “enter deepwater areas” as stated by senior officials, it is difficult for all interest groups to balance. Whether China can safely survive this trade dispute between China and the United States depends on whether or not the decision-making level can turn the trade crisis into a driving force for reform under the premise of protecting national interests. The US’s punitive measures for ZTE and the requirements for intellectual property rights protection are reasonable. China’s protection of intellectual property and its legislation have made progress in the past few years, but the pace of reform can still be increased. The reform of state-owned enterprises in China has been difficult and a large number of subsidies have squeezed out efficient private capital. In the face of trade pressure from the United States, the Chinese government can speed up the reform by pushing the waters.McCarthyism returnSince Trump took office, the voice of the pro-China school has become increasingly bleak. Today, the dialogue in the White House is dominated by the hardliners. This inevitably reminds people of the tragedy of McCarthyism in the fifties of last century: populism was rampant and violence wiped out aliens. However, today's pro-China sentiment in the United States is not due to government pressure. It is a change in American social thought. The pro-China school only responds to social trends. Last year, the United States defined China as a "revisionist country." This reflects that China is not an object that can be won by the United States but a rival. Various empirical studies have shown that China’s economic development has indeed damaged the interests of a considerable portion of Americans. In addition to the work of the bottom-level industrial workers being “stolen” by the Chinese people, the influence of the middle class has also increased, including the surging Chinese. The impact of the immigration tide on American society. The worry of the United States is not without reason.Compared with the fear of the Communist Party in McCarthyism that year, the United States is now not afraid of the political influence of communism, but is more concerned with economic and international influence. China’s “One Belt and One Road” strategy has become increasingly influential in third-world countries, and it has formed direct competition with developed countries in local investment. Especially in infrastructure projects, Chinese state-owned companies often win bids at low prices. Many developing countries do not fully agree with China's development model, but in the past two years, China has won some swinging countries, such as Georgia in Eastern Europe. The deep sea port of Anaklia is a century-long plan for Georgia. The project did not introduce Chinese capital but started an American-Georgian joint venture. Georgia wants to show its Atlantic lineage and recognize Western values. However, the attractiveness of China's first-rate infrastructure and low-interest loans is too great. In 2017, China and Georgia signed China’s first free trade agreement in Central Asia, and the port of Anaklia also accepted a 500 billion U.S. dollar investment from Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industry. Although China does not have specific values of output, construction itself seems to be increasingly a value.Trump may have secretly envied the Chinese government’s ability to “concentrate on managing major events”. However, he cannot lead the United States to take a government-led development path. It is impossible to build large projects or reduce welfare, even if it is the most effective use of resources in the short term. The way. Now that the internal political division in the United States is serious and the two parties are unable to cooperate effectively, Trump’s hardline attitude towards China is extremely high among the voters. Even if the Republicans do not agree, they will still be standing for the Trump team for party interests. What China needs to be prepared to face is not just a two-day trade negotiation, but a Sino-US competition that may take decades to come.
  • 时间: 2018 - 04 - 19
    source: SLHFINANCE
    News News:China News Service, April 14 (Xinhua) - In a comprehensive report, on the 13th of the local time, the U.S. military, together with the United Kingdom and France, implemented a "precise blow" on Syria in response to Syria's "chemical warfare." This military action has drawn the attention of the international community. Many parties have accused it of violating the UN Charter and related international laws. Although this strike is "one-off," there will be no further progress in the short term. However, it does not rule out the possibility that the situation will intensify in the future. With the resumption of smoke in Syria, where will the situation in the Middle East go?Another news: On April 16, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it prohibits US companies from selling components and parts to Zhongxing Company for a period of seven years because ZTE Corporation violated the settlement agreement reached with the U.S. government in 2017. In response, on April 17, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce responded: "The Chinese side will pay close attention to the progress of the situation and stand ready to take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises."Shallow hill view:The recent international political and economic situation is turbulent. Although the main line is relatively clear, it is nothing more than geopolitical risk and the market risk aversion that is driven by the Sino-US trade war. However, the changes and progress of the situation are completely unpredictable and there are basically no precedents. To follow, this will affect the main issues of the market at present and at a later stage...The excuse for US-British-French air raids on Syria is indeed somewhat farfetched, and the decision is somewhat too rapid. However, the surprise of investors is not that the reasons for the attack on Syria are not sufficient. After all, unreasonable things about the United States, Britain and France are numerous, and Iraq is a living example. What surprised investors was that, after all, Syria is an alleged ally of Russia, and Russia has a large number of garrisons in the Syrian territory. The naked air strikes against Syria by Western countries are the blatant actions of Russian cheese. Looking at the style of the fighting nation, will it not induce large-scale military conflicts? Or in the event of a direct conflict between Russia and the Western world, its risk cannot be overestimated. But paradoxically, Russia, in addition to condemning it for not doing any tough moves, and the United States, Britain, France and France seemingly menacing, but carefully avoiding the "precision" behind the blow, not only against precision, but also the loss of casualties and losses are small, In order to avoid the serious consequences of angering Russia. Such an air strike is not so much an air attack as it is a show under the mutual understanding of both parties. However, it is still possible to glimpse that Russia, as the main successor to the once superpower Soviet Union, really did not have the strength and the deterrent force of that year.Sentiment is on the one hand, but the above narrative also exposes the risk point that market investors are concerned with. That is, Russia’s determination to keep its sole stronghold in the Middle East is well known to everyone, but the decline in strength has made it more than satisfactory in many matters. Weak enough, but if we touch Russia's bottom line, it is not impossible for all countermeasures to even go shirtless; in return, the United States, Britain, and France choose airstrikes for national and international interests, although the first wave of action is over, but It is uncertain whether there will be a halt to the announcement and whether the next attack or attack intensity will be launched in the future. So the question is, where is the invisible bottom line of Russia, whether the United States, Britain, and France will always make a show or will consider appropriate or gradual choices to touch Russian cheese?Because of this, market risk aversion has always been filled, but the current situation seems to be in a controllable range, so the price of gold has not soared. For the same reason, the positions of both sides do not seem very clear. When the outbreak of the next conflict may be It became the reason why the price of gold rose again.In addition, the trade friction between China and the United States is also a mystery. The two sides will be arrogant and overwhelming, and they will spread propaganda messages to silence disputes. In short, you saw the beginning of the story, but by now, it is estimated that even most people in the party cannot guess the end of the story. The information that the United States banned domestic companies from selling chips and other parts and components to China's ZTE Corporation once again stirred up the market's tensions overnight. According to the principle of always coming and going, it is expected that China will issue a similar retaliatory measure. This is another round of confrontation between the US-China trade friction. Regardless of the amount involved, for investors, the situation is deteriorating, so for the risk aversion, there is no possibility of mitigation.In summary, because of the aforementioned risk events, the United States is a party, so the occurrence of risk has a significant inhibitory effect on the US dollar. As Russia is a major international energy exporter and Syria is in the hinterland of the Middle East, the strength of crude oil does not increase. Yu. Precious metals such as gold will continue to function as safe-haven varieties. In addition, there will be new risk points during the day, and the strength of the precious metals in the short-term market outlook will continue.
  • 时间: 2018 - 03 - 23
    source: SLHFINANCE
    News News:On March 21, the target range of the federal funds rate was raised to 1.5% to 1.75%. The monetary policy stance is still loose, supporting the return of inflation to 2%. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in January showed that the labor market continues to strengthen and economic activity has been rising at a moderate pace. The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also stated that taking into account uncertainties such as fiscal deficits caused by trade wars and tax cuts, the actual path of Fed interest rates will depend on the development of the future situation.Another news: On Thursday (March 22), according to the People's Daily report, the United States announced that it was targeting Chinese intellectual property rights infringement and imposed a tariff of 50 billion U.S. dollars on Chinese exports. This move may exacerbate the growing tension between the two largest economies in the world.According to foreign media reports, Trump is scheduled to sign an executive memorandum in Washington on Thursday. Within 15 days, the U.S. Trade Representative Office will present a list of proposed products that will face higher tariffs.Shallow hill view:The Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to fall within the market’s expectation. After the meeting’s statement, it expressed a mild attitude toward future interest rate movements. Although it has not exceeded market expectations, it is within acceptable limits. If even if the Fed raises its interest rate even after the statement is moderate, then the US dollar, at most, limited gains rather than the United States and commodities is usually heard down, but this Fed interest rate resolution has led to the emergence of non-US upward US market and the US dollar stagnant situation. . This phenomenon is quite puzzling but at the same time, it is hidden. It is the issue of trade wars and large-scale tax reductions mentioned by the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell....As soon as the Federal Reserve interest rate decision was announced, the issue of the trade war was once again escalated. This time it was naked against China. This process is quite intriguing and we might as well sort it out. Previously, the U.S. president announced the imposition of tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum, which once caused global concern. At that time, we were still complacent about the fact that China’s exports of steel and aluminum products to the United States were very small. It was precisely the United States’ traditional allies that became Europe. It seems that this time the United States aimed its gun at the euro, the enemy of the US dollar, and it was quietly silent about China. However, we soon discovered that the United States has added one more tariff and can apply for exemption. Following that, North America and Australia have been exempted from each other. At this time, we have the impression of a cup of tea. The original trade war can still be played in this way, or the trade war can become the threshold for the United States to establish a bargaining threshold to obtain more priority chips. Does this mean that similar situations will happen again, and China can apply for exemptionFacts have proved that we want to be simple, and we do not touch the pulse of the United States at all. This trade war is not only aimed at China, but also aimed at China's top ten strategic industries, and these ten strategic industries are the ten key areas listed in "Made in China 2025". This is the real Xiangzhuang sword and its intention is to gain public praise. Before the tax on steel and aluminum was added, it was just an opening remark. These ten strategic industries are not very closely related to the current people's livelihood industry, so they have less impact on ordinary people. In other words, they will not immediately lead to domestic public grievances. However, at present, China is in the process of key industrial transformation and upgrading. It is like the protons launched by the three bodies of the “Three-Body” on Earth, which directly lock the development of your technology. The US trade war against China is also for the same purpose.Can you think so Is this Trump's tailor-made negotiation conditions for China Can I apply for an exemption Estimates can't. From the point of view of this kind of precision-guided trade war, Trump is definitely not the "special off-note" of the media's rumors, but it can be described in a farsighted way. Its purpose does not lie in the short-term Sino-U.S. trade balance. Instead, it directly takes the name of the strategic high ground in the future. This is the highest realm of martial arts. The move is not dragging its feet, and the blow goes straight to the point and aims to abolish your martial arts.Of course, as the world's second-largest economy, China will surely have a lot of countermeasures, and as long as China proposes countermeasures, it will certainly have a huge impact on the US business community. The decline of US stocks is only a by-product, and the decline of the US dollar is also a matter of course. What is very intriguing is that the U.S. trade war against Europe will promote the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, because U.S. has the absolute advantage over U.S.; but the U.S. trade war will weaken, because the full-scale trade war with China will start once, only from the trade level. Looking at the United States does not account for any cheap. But who can confirm that it is not the purpose of the United States to let the US dollar not rise too strongly after raising interest ratesEarlier we mentioned that maintaining the relative stability or strength of the U.S. dollar is not a deterrent. It not only guarantees the smooth implementation of the Fed’s shrinking schedule and rate hike plan, but also guarantees ample domestic liquidity. This seems to be the current Trump administration. The intention is to look at this route more clearly now. So outside the Fed, when the U.S. government took control of the US dollar as a horse-drawn carriage, it also created two reins out of the trade war. One was trade with Europe and the other was trade with China, but these two reins were not simple trade. Instead, they need to add a "war" at the end.
  • 时间: 2018 - 03 - 14
    source: SLHFINANCE
    News News:The February CPI data of the US “terrorism” was released on Tuesday (March 13th) in local time. The data itself basically accorded with the previous expectations of the market, and the Fed’s prospect of raising interest rates at next week’s meeting was also stabilized due to the consolidation of inflation trends. And gaining interest has become a high probability event. However, recently, the status of “black swans” in the political fields of various countries in the world has replaced economic data and become a bigger factor in the market sentiment. On Tuesday, just after the release of the US CPI data, the market was still chewing on it. The news that US President Trump suddenly announced that he had fired Secretary of State Tillerson frightened investors and completely disrupted the market. Should have a rhythm.In addition: China News Service, Beijing, March 9. Comprehensive information: US President Trump announced at the White House on the 8th that local time, the United States will impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products, and Canada and Mexico will temporarily be exempted. This latest trade protection measure in the United States has been opposed by many countries and international organizations.Shallow hill view:Since President Trump took office, his behavior and style have been very different from almost all his predecessors in the past. This has become the consensus of the world. The recent exchange of trade wars provoked by President Trump’s initiative and the sudden replacement of Secretary of State by yesterday’s incident have caused people to be surprised by the series of actions...In the past year or so, whether it is the construction of the US-Mexico border or the forced repatriation of immigrants, whether in the nomination of the hardline position of the Fed chairman or the implementation of large-scale tax cuts, whether it is in recognition of Yale Sarang as the capital of Israel or The ignorance of racial issues has shown Trump's disdain for the so-called "political correctness" and the deviant attitude of the traditional American public opinion. Although this series of practices has not only been criticized by the Democratic Party, but has not been seen in the Republican Organization, it has to admit that these practices are consistent with the US slogan promised by Trump during his election campaign. The practical supporters of General Motors still seem to be very useful. In the past, Tyreson in the Trump Cabinet was a relatively doctrinal politician. He often explained and balanced the position after Trump made some radical remarks. To make the unilateralism of the United States not completely lose its bondage. Or in other words, for the capital market, the presence of key figures such as Trumpson in the Trump cabinet has made it possible to speculate on changes in the political situation in the United States because, although Trump’s actions and opinions cannot be grasped, it is at least Di Le Sen's way of thinking is in line with tradition.But DeLille was dismissed and came suddenly, and the White House confirmed immediately after Trump himself first sent a message on Twitter. Although there have been signs before, such mutations have caught the whole market by surprise, and the sudden drop in the dollar's intraday price since overnight has been considered to be such a concrete manifestation. The newly appointed State Secretary Pompeo was an outspoken hawkish person. His personal hawkish attitude on many issues was worse than that of Trump (as far as his specific behavior and speeches were concerned, please Baidu himself). As a result, the Trump Cabinet completed a transformation of unilateral colors towards more unilateral colors. This means that in the future, the U.S. government will take more unilateral actions in the diplomatic field. But this time there may not be any coordination with the heavyweights of the relative doves such as Thierry D. As the saying goes, "risk is not terrible, but the key lies in the controllable risk." And the hawkish Trump paired with a more hawkish Pompeo would mean that the U.S. unilateralist path is set, but as for It is not clear to what extent unilaterals are. This is where the real panic of the capital markets market lies.Returning to the trade wars, Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum announced last week has exempted some important trading partners over the past few days, but it can be seen by sight to see that even Australia can pass exemptions. Even South Korea has made requests for exemption, with the exception of the EU and China and other countries that do not waive, and the proportion of China’s steel and aluminum exports to the United States is very small, and where the sword points are clear. This is also one of the important reasons for the European Central Bank to hold back its quantitative easing policy after the recent interest rate meeting. Of course what is Trump's original intention We are not aware of whether or not DiLeissen’s speech on the issue of important trading partner exemptions. However, as the new Secretary of State takes office, we can almost certainly say that the trade war will continue, or even not. Exclusion will extend to more areas in the future.Trade wars can be used to accurately guide the war. If the goal is Europe, the strength of the euro will be a long way. Although the U.S. dollar has declined in the short term, as long as the euro remains under control, there is no need to worry that the U.S. dollar will continue to weaken. However, if the US dollar trend is too strong to be in line with U.S. interests, the U.S. government’s current style of action can also completely take measures to achieve its goal without causing trouble to the Federal Reserve. In addition, the indirect effects of DeLesson's departure may continue to be the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, the situation in the Middle East, the Iranian nuclear issue, and a broader area of close interest to the United States. If all these problems are dominated by unilateral thinking, Then the geo-risk of the future will more contain the market's attention, and the dollar's safe-haven appeal will have more room to play.Maintaining the relative stability or strength of the U.S. dollar, but it is not an eclipse. It not only guarantees the smooth implementation of the Fed’s shrinking schedule and the rate hike plan, but also guarantees ample liquidity in the country. This seems to be the intention of the current Trump administration, but it looks like As mentioned above, this is only speculation. Who knows if the new Secretary of State in Trump’s style will be suddenly dismissed sometime in the future

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